2023考研英語閱讀人民幣的崛起
the rise of the redback
人民幣的崛起
IN 1965 Valry Giscard dEstaing, then Frances finance minister, complained that America, asthe issuer of the worlds reserve currency, enjoyed an exorbitant privilege. Chinaspresident, Hu Jintao, does not have quite the same way with words. But on the eve of his visitto America this week he told two of the countrys newspapers that the international currencysystem was a product of the past. Something can be a product of the past without being athing of the past. But his implication was clear: the dollars role reflects Americas historicalclout, not its present stature.
在1965年時，瓦勒里季斯卡德斯坦還是法國財政部部長，當時他抱怨到作為世界儲備貨幣發行國的美國，享有者一種囂張的特權。不過中國國家主席胡錦濤用另外的說法表達了這個意思在本周出訪美國前夕，他告訴兩家國內的報紙說國際貨幣體系是舊時代的產物。有些東西在沒有成為陳跡之前，就已經成為過去的產物。但是他的意思很清楚：美元反映的是美國在過去的影響力，但是不現在的情況。
Mr Hu is right that Americas currency punches above its economys diminished weight in theworld. Americas share of global output , trade and even financial assets is shrinking, as emerging economies flourish. But many of those economies,such as South Korea, still sell their exports for dollars; many, including China, still peg theircurrencies to the greenback, however loosely; and about 60% of the worlds foreign-exchangereserves remain in dollars.
胡先生是對的，美元地位與其在世界經濟中不斷下降的份額不相稱。在世界產出中美國所占的份額，在世界貿易中美國擁有的份額以及在金融資產上的美國的份額都在萎縮，而新興市場經濟體卻不斷繁榮?？墒沁@其中的大部分國家，比如韓國，還在用美元結算出口商品;很多國家，包括中國，仍然將其貨幣與美元掛鉤，只不過現在跟隨步伐不那么緊了;而且，世界外匯儲備中大約有60%仍然使用美元。
This allows America to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world. Its government has been ableto overspend, secure in the knowledge that its IOUs will be bought by foreign central banks,which are not too fussy about price. America would show more self-discipline, many Chinesebelieve, if the dollar had a little bit more competition.
這種情況的存在使美國可以很便宜地從世界其它地方購買商品。由于知道自己發行的票據會被國外央行購買，所以美國政府能夠過度花費而不對價格過分擔心。很多中國人認為如果美元還能保證一點競爭力的話，它應該更自律一些。
Could the yuan become a rival? Chinas economy willprobably surpass Americas in outright size within 20years. It is already a bigger exporter. It is proddingfirms to settle trade and even acquire foreigncompanies in its own currency. That is adding to apool of redbacks outside its borders. Theseoffshore yuan are, in turn, being tapped byborrowers, issuing dim sum bonds in Hong Kong.
人民幣能成為美元的競爭對手嗎?中國的經濟規模會在未來二十年超過美國。它已經是世界上最大的出口國。并且還在鼓勵本國企業用人民幣收購國外企業以降低貿易額。這些人民幣不斷進入離岸市場。于是，這些離岸存在的人民幣被借方挖掘出來并在香港發行了點心債券。
But as the dollars history shows, economic clout is not enough without financialsophistication . If foreigners are to store their wealth in yuan, they will needfinancial instruments that are safe, stable and easily sold. Dim sum makes for a tastyappetiser. But the main feast of Chinas financial assets is onshore and off-limits, thanks to itsstrict capital controls. The government remains deeply reluctant to let foreigners hold, buy andsell these assets, except under tight limits. Indeed, it is barely ready to give its own peoplefinancial freedom: interest on bank deposits is capped; shares are largely owned by stateentities; and bonds are chiefly held by the bankswhich are, in turn, mostly owned by thestate.
但是，美元的發展歷史指出沒有金融體系的深度復雜，經濟地位無法支撐一國貨幣的國際化。如果外國人用人民幣來儲存其財富，他就需要安全，穩定且易于賣出的金融工具。從這個角度講，點心債券只是一個開始。由于嚴格的資本管制，中國絕大部分金融資產處于國內而且還是政策禁區。除非十分嚴格的條件下，政府在很大程度上尚不愿意讓外國人持有、購買和賣出這些資產。事實上，它也沒有給予其居民在金融上的自由：銀行存款利率是國家規定的;股票市場中的很大份額屬于國家所有;債券主要由銀行持有而這些銀行主要也是國有銀行。
Over time China will relax its financial grip. But even if it could usurp the dollars role as theworlds currency, it will not replicate the American set-up. The United States takes advantageof the dollars position to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world, selling its assets in returnfor goods. China is a mirror image of this. It runs a trade surplus, selling goods in return forfinancial claims on foreigners. Its firms, households and government save more than they caninvest at home.
隨著時間的推移，中國會放松其對金融的掌控。但即使可以替代美元成為世界貨幣，它也無法重現美國對該地位的運用。美國利用其美元地位從世界其它地方低價借款并賣出資產以獲得商品。中國則正好相反。它擁有大量貿易盈余，賣出商品以獲得金融資產的所有權。它的企業、家庭和政府積累的儲蓄遠遠高于其國內投資。
A different kind of perk
不同的收益
Rather than seeking to borrow in its own currency, China may harbour the opposite ambition:to lend in its own currency. The exorbitant privilege it may covet is a lower foreign-exchangerisk on its savings. On top of the trillions China has lent to Americas treasury, it also holdsstakes in Australian mines, African farms and Swedish car companies. But because none ofthese assets is in yuan, China suffers a capital loss whenever its currency strengthens. It wouldno doubt like to share some of this risk with the rest of the world. The model is not America,but Germany, an international creditor which holds 70% of its foreign assets in euros.
除了希望用人民幣借錢外，中國可能還有更大的抱負：用人民幣給別人借錢。這樣做帶來的好處是降低本國儲蓄的匯率風險。在中國的外匯儲備中，中國借出錢最多的是給美國財政部，同時它還持有很多澳大利亞礦業、非洲農場以及瑞典汽車公司的股份。但是由于這些資產都不是用人民幣計算的，所以如果人民幣走強，將面臨較大的資本損失。當然，毫無疑問的是這種風險是由全世界承擔的。德國作為世界性的債權國，其70%的國外資金都用歐元計價。
There is a catch, though. No one will want to borrow in a currency that is only ever going tostrengthen, increasing the value of their debts. So if China wants to yuanify some of itsclaims on the rest of the world, it will need a currency that can go down as well as up. To makepeople believe the yuan can fall tomorrow, China will have to loosen its currencys peg and let itrise faster today. China is different from America: it is a rising economic power and a thrifty one.But one rule still holds: China will have to open its financial system to the world if the yuan is tobe the dominant currency.
這里面還是有一些困難的。沒人喜歡借入會一直走強的貨幣，這樣會增加相應的負債。因此如果中國想人民幣化它在世界其它地方的資產，就需要一種可能升值也可能貶值的貨幣。為了讓別人相信人民幣會在未來貶值，中國應該加強其盯住美元的策略，讓人民幣在今天快速升值。中國和美國的不同之處在于：它是一股不斷上升的經濟力量，而且還很節儉。但是有一個規律還是成立的：如果想要人民幣成為主導貨幣，中國必須向世界開放他的金融體系。
the rise of the redback
人民幣的崛起
IN 1965 Valry Giscard dEstaing, then Frances finance minister, complained that America, asthe issuer of the worlds reserve currency, enjoyed an exorbitant privilege. Chinaspresident, Hu Jintao, does not have quite the same way with words. But on the eve of his visitto America this week he told two of the countrys newspapers that the international currencysystem was a product of the past. Something can be a product of the past without being athing of the past. But his implication was clear: the dollars role reflects Americas historicalclout, not its present stature.
在1965年時，瓦勒里季斯卡德斯坦還是法國財政部部長，當時他抱怨到作為世界儲備貨幣發行國的美國，享有者一種囂張的特權。不過中國國家主席胡錦濤用另外的說法表達了這個意思在本周出訪美國前夕，他告訴兩家國內的報紙說國際貨幣體系是舊時代的產物。有些東西在沒有成為陳跡之前，就已經成為過去的產物。但是他的意思很清楚：美元反映的是美國在過去的影響力，但是不現在的情況。
Mr Hu is right that Americas currency punches above its economys diminished weight in theworld. Americas share of global output , trade and even financial assets is shrinking, as emerging economies flourish. But many of those economies,such as South Korea, still sell their exports for dollars; many, including China, still peg theircurrencies to the greenback, however loosely; and about 60% of the worlds foreign-exchangereserves remain in dollars.
胡先生是對的，美元地位與其在世界經濟中不斷下降的份額不相稱。在世界產出中美國所占的份額，在世界貿易中美國擁有的份額以及在金融資產上的美國的份額都在萎縮，而新興市場經濟體卻不斷繁榮。可是這其中的大部分國家，比如韓國，還在用美元結算出口商品;很多國家，包括中國，仍然將其貨幣與美元掛鉤，只不過現在跟隨步伐不那么緊了;而且，世界外匯儲備中大約有60%仍然使用美元。
This allows America to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world. Its government has been ableto overspend, secure in the knowledge that its IOUs will be bought by foreign central banks,which are not too fussy about price. America would show more self-discipline, many Chinesebelieve, if the dollar had a little bit more competition.
這種情況的存在使美國可以很便宜地從世界其它地方購買商品。由于知道自己發行的票據會被國外央行購買，所以美國政府能夠過度花費而不對價格過分擔心。很多中國人認為如果美元還能保證一點競爭力的話，它應該更自律一些。
Could the yuan become a rival? Chinas economy willprobably surpass Americas in outright size within 20years. It is already a bigger exporter. It is proddingfirms to settle trade and even acquire foreigncompanies in its own currency. That is adding to apool of redbacks outside its borders. Theseoffshore yuan are, in turn, being tapped byborrowers, issuing dim sum bonds in Hong Kong.
人民幣能成為美元的競爭對手嗎?中國的經濟規模會在未來二十年超過美國。它已經是世界上最大的出口國。并且還在鼓勵本國企業用人民幣收購國外企業以降低貿易額。這些人民幣不斷進入離岸市場。于是，這些離岸存在的人民幣被借方挖掘出來并在香港發行了點心債券。
But as the dollars history shows, economic clout is not enough without financialsophistication . If foreigners are to store their wealth in yuan, they will needfinancial instruments that are safe, stable and easily sold. Dim sum makes for a tastyappetiser. But the main feast of Chinas financial assets is onshore and off-limits, thanks to itsstrict capital controls. The government remains deeply reluctant to let foreigners hold, buy andsell these assets, except under tight limits. Indeed, it is barely ready to give its own peoplefinancial freedom: interest on bank deposits is capped; shares are largely owned by stateentities; and bonds are chiefly held by the bankswhich are, in turn, mostly owned by thestate.
但是，美元的發展歷史指出沒有金融體系的深度復雜，經濟地位無法支撐一國貨幣的國際化。如果外國人用人民幣來儲存其財富，他就需要安全，穩定且易于賣出的金融工具。從這個角度講，點心債券只是一個開始。由于嚴格的資本管制，中國絕大部分金融資產處于國內而且還是政策禁區。除非十分嚴格的條件下，政府在很大程度上尚不愿意讓外國人持有、購買和賣出這些資產。事實上，它也沒有給予其居民在金融上的自由：銀行存款利率是國家規定的;股票市場中的很大份額屬于國家所有;債券主要由銀行持有而這些銀行主要也是國有銀行。
Over time China will relax its financial grip. But even if it could usurp the dollars role as theworlds currency, it will not replicate the American set-up. The United States takes advantageof the dollars position to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world, selling its assets in returnfor goods. China is a mirror image of this. It runs a trade surplus, selling goods in return forfinancial claims on foreigners. Its firms, households and government save more than they caninvest at home.
隨著時間的推移，中國會放松其對金融的掌控。但即使可以替代美元成為世界貨幣，它也無法重現美國對該地位的運用。美國利用其美元地位從世界其它地方低價借款并賣出資產以獲得商品。中國則正好相反。它擁有大量貿易盈余，賣出商品以獲得金融資產的所有權。它的企業、家庭和政府積累的儲蓄遠遠高于其國內投資。
A different kind of perk
不同的收益
Rather than seeking to borrow in its own currency, China may harbour the opposite ambition:to lend in its own currency. The exorbitant privilege it may covet is a lower foreign-exchangerisk on its savings. On top of the trillions China has lent to Americas treasury, it also holdsstakes in Australian mines, African farms and Swedish car companies. But because none ofthese assets is in yuan, China suffers a capital loss whenever its currency strengthens. It wouldno doubt like to share some of this risk with the rest of the world. The model is not America,but Germany, an international creditor which holds 70% of its foreign assets in euros.
除了希望用人民幣借錢外，中國可能還有更大的抱負：用人民幣給別人借錢。這樣做帶來的好處是降低本國儲蓄的匯率風險。在中國的外匯儲備中，中國借出錢最多的是給美國財政部，同時它還持有很多澳大利亞礦業、非洲農場以及瑞典汽車公司的股份。但是由于這些資產都不是用人民幣計算的，所以如果人民幣走強，將面臨較大的資本損失。當然，毫無疑問的是這種風險是由全世界承擔的。德國作為世界性的債權國，其70%的國外資金都用歐元計價。
There is a catch, though. No one will want to borrow in a currency that is only ever going tostrengthen, increasing the value of their debts. So if China wants to yuanify some of itsclaims on the rest of the world, it will need a currency that can go down as well as up. To makepeople believe the yuan can fall tomorrow, China will have to loosen its currencys peg and let itrise faster today. China is different from America: it is a rising economic power and a thrifty one.But one rule still holds: China will have to open its financial system to the world if the yuan is tobe the dominant currency.
這里面還是有一些困難的。沒人喜歡借入會一直走強的貨幣，這樣會增加相應的負債。因此如果中國想人民幣化它在世界其它地方的資產，就需要一種可能升值也可能貶值的貨幣。為了讓別人相信人民幣會在未來貶值，中國應該加強其盯住美元的策略，讓人民幣在今天快速升值。中國和美國的不同之處在于：它是一股不斷上升的經濟力量，而且還很節儉。但是有一個規律還是成立的：如果想要人民幣成為主導貨幣，中國必須向世界開放他的金融體系。
